Last year was an exceptional year, and not in a good way. There was no shortage of worries during the year from COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the most central story of all: inflation and interest rates.

2022 was a brutal year for investors, with few places to hide.

November was a strong month for equities, despite ongoing concerns surrounding inflation and central bank policy action.

In October, the developed market equities market saw its first positive monthly return since July.

2022 has dealt a blow to the 60/40 portfolio. While losses in a 60/40 portfolio are not unusual, losses in stocks and bonds simultaneously are unusual.

Midterm elections are around the corner, and the outcome will determine which party has control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

After a summer rally, volatility is back in full swing. 2022 has challenged investors’ patience as almost every investment has had negative returns, with the exception of commodities, the US dollar, and cash.

August posed challenges for equity markets with US equities (-4.1%) and international developed equities (-4.7%) both in the negative.

When volatility strikes and stock markets decline, it can rattle even the most experienced investors. As behavioral science tells us, the pain of an investment loss is felt more keenly than the enjoyment of an investment gain.

July was a strong month for equities, after a rough first half in 2022. Despite ongoing concerns of economic growth and inflation, the US (9.2%) had its best month since November 2020.

Milton Friedman famously declared that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.

Investors are currently grappling with the question of whether the recent rise in interest rates will lead to an economic slowdown (soft landing) or an economic recession (hard landing).

Record high inflation, rising interest rates, and recession fears led stocks and bonds lower in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22). For just the second time in 40 years, bonds and stocks both posted losses for two consecutive quarters.

Behavioral science tells us current events have a greater impact on our perception and decisions than the past.

After stellar economic growth in 2021, the US economy declined 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. This was the first contraction of the economy since the beginning of the economic recovery in 2020.

Bonds are off to a rough start in 2022. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, the proxy for core US bonds, has declined nearly 6% in the first three months of 2022.

The war in Ukraine, surging inflation and rising interest rates led markets lower in the first quarter. After a strong 2021, US equities saw its first quarterly loss in two years.

The Russia-Ukraine war is a humanitarian disaster. While this latest insight focuses on the impact of the war on global economies and markets, in hopes for a resolution to this humanitarian crisis, be reminded of this quote by Franklin Delano Roosevelt: “More than an end to war, we want an end to the beginnings of all war”.

The one thing that is certain when geopolitical events take hold is that uncertainty runs rife, and the one thing that investors and the markets don’t like is uncertainty.

The stock market is off to a rocky start this year. Higher volatility can be a source of uncertainty for even the most seasoned investors.